The Picture Above Is What I See The Right After I Get Up. Perhaps it is why I am so nostalgic lately. I am grateful that there are some things in my life that change very little. Although I have to expend some effort to keep it this way, most of it occurs automatically with little help from me. Other things Are Changing Very Rapidly. A number of these changes are inevitable and can be very frightening because some long time fixtures of our society are virtually disappearing.
1. The Post Office. Regular mail (snail mail) is disappearing. As the older generation disappears, virtually all written communication will be via computers. So much nicer to write something that you can send around the globe in seconds rather than days. Of course, we will still need to move objects and packages but Fed Ex and UPS can handle that much more efficiently than the government.
2. Checks. More and more of us pay our bills by internet. It's way too inefficient to use paper that must be carried around from place to place to conduct commerce.
3. Newspapers. As a means of disseminating news, newspapers are way too slow. Between television and the internet, there is little need for print media to be carried around and thrown in people's yard. Dad with his morning paper and coffee is a thing of the past.
4. Books. In a very short time, electronic books have exceeded printed material. My daughter was here recently with her Kindle bragging to me that she was carrying an entire library of 150 volumes in her purse. Although it pains m to say this, it appears that thi is much more efficient
than my present method of keeping reading material which requires book cases in every room and a dust collecting system that causes my wife to sneeze every time she gets one down.
5. Conventional Telephones. My first cellular telephone was confined to my automobile and cost over $1000 (on sale). It only involved voice communication and you paid by the fraction of a minute each time it was in use whether you contacted the party you wanted to reach or not. The hardware is now cheaper and more versatile. The younger generation takes their cell phones with them when they move away from home and few bother to hook up conventional telephones in their new environment. Telephone companies are doing very little to maintain and improve the infrastructure of their conventional telephone business. Talk to even low level phone employees and they will tell you that land lines are the least profitable segment of any communication company's business
6 Television as it currently exists. TV networks are not serving the public well and it appears obvious to me that commercials are becoming more and more prevelant. Cable subscrptions are becoming more and more expensive, yet their revenues are down. At the same time, video games and and internet entertainment are competing more and more for entertainment time. In the future, virtually all television sets will have a computer terminal and internet connection with programming through the internet.
Most of These Predictions are Common Sense. But common sense predictions have helped my investing success immensely over the years. Think about it. What kinds of companies may be successful over the years in view of these trends? Certain tech companies? Transportation companies? Electronic companies? The current investment environment is pretty risky. Companies that have had dominant positions in some industries might be at risk (Remember General Motors?). It's going to take some thought and attention to avoid losing money on some of the companies that will be impacted by these trends.
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