COLD AFTERNOON IN TEXAS.

Quotes From Market Watchers.. I'm sitting by my computer trying to think of something positive to say about these markets. I am reminded of a quote from a well-known financial planner who says that this market reminds him of a "forest fire where all the animals are running in all directions looking for a safe place'. Needless to say, there doesn't seem to be one. Another quote says "the market bottom is reached when investors stop looking for the bottom and start looking for the exits". Given what I've heard from a number of clients lately, that occur ed some time ago.

Measuring Fear. A few posts ago, I talked about the VIX which is a measure of volatility and, ultimately, fear in the market. I talked about a level above 40 being the maximum fear level observed since the CBOE began measuring it almost 30 years ago. During this time, that level has been reached only three times and each time the market was higher six months later. We have now learned that a VIX of 40 is no where the maximum level of fear potential in the market. As of today it stands just above 75, and it has been as high as 80. This is a quantitative measure of just how difficult things are. I could never have imagined that it could have reached this point.

Are You Looking For a Reason for Optimism? Here's one. Although my IRA has been decimated, I can still buy the same number of barrels of oil with today's value as I could have at the high point. I filled my truck gas tank with only $25 yesterday. We are no longer having to send massive amounts of money to countries who would like to kill us. I can't help but believe that oil prices have reached the bottom of the current cycle. Hopefully, we can take heed from the warning we have received. Although the increases of the past few months have failed to hold, the threat still hangs heavy over our heads. They did it once, they can do it again.

The End of the Year is Rapidly Approaching. I can't say I am sorry to see 2008 leave us behind. As I look out the window, I see the beautiful East Texas woods (what Rita and Ike left us) and I never cease to be amazed at the miracle that surrounds me. Speaking of miracles, I have been taking a DVD course on the brain. One thing I have learned is that the vast majority of the images collected by the eye, fail to reach the brain but we continue to think we see everything around us. As I continue to try to develop a vision of the future, I am reminded of a quote from Steve Goodier, publisher of a newsletter entitled Life Support. "Vision is never about seeing the obvious. It's about looking ahead; about seeing what is not there -- YET. It's often about seeing the potential behind the obvious".

Heading To Denver. I'll be there in a couple of weeks and hope to see many of you while I am there. For now, I'll go take a walk in the woods and try to see as much as I can of the obvious.