If We Are Going To Comment About Global Warming We Need To Be Informed. News people love to talk about global warming. Many don't know what they are talking about.I have researched a few facts that I think we should be aware of before we get too deeply into supporting one side or another.
1. The rise in the Earth's temperature is correlated with the increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. While this is a true statement, even an amateur statistician will tell you that the fact that two things are correlated only means that an increase in one variable is usually followed by in change in the other. This does not mean that one change caused the other. In many cases both are related to a third variable which causes both to change.
2. Carbon dioxide is an unavoidable consequence of burning virtually everything we use for energy. With a few exceptions like nuclear and hydrogen, everything burned for energy produces carbon dioxide. Man first began to produce carbon dioxide when he discovered fire. Even if we learn to produce totally efficient clean burning fuels, as long as we are burning carbon containing materials we will produce carbon dioxide. The bottom line here is that, the only way to produce less carbon dioxide is to burn less carbon containing fuel. Ethanol produces less carbon dioxide than gasoline; however, the processes by which ethanol is produced at this time (fermentation), produces carbon dioxide before the end product produces the first unit of energy. In the final analysis, smaller cars and houses along with less consumption of manufactured products is the only thing we can do to burn less fuel. I wonder how many of us are willing to take that step. Before we get too anxious to blame the oil companies manufacturing industries, and the government, we need to look in the mirror to see the real culprits.
3. We should also ask ourselves if we are sure that carbon dioxide is the real culprit. It is undoubtedly true that carbon dioxide levels are currently 26% higher than the average of the past several hundred years. In absolute terms, the best estimate of this average is 280 parts per million. To get an idea of how much this is, consider that if you took $100 to the bank and converted it to pennies, you would have 10,000 pennies. If all were Lincoln pennies except three indian heads, this would be the same as the historic level of carbon dioxide. If we added a fourth penny, this would be equal to the increase of CO2 levels produced by recent history. This doesn't mean that CO2 isn't responsible for at least some global warming but it does cast some doubt on the issue. It also gives you an idea of how much we are going to have to sacrifice to have some effect on the situation. As the biggest consumer of petroleum based fuels in the world, the US has been criticised for refusing to sign the Kyoto accords. We must remember that China and India are exempt from these and their rapidly growing economies are slated to produce one coal fired energy plant per week over the next few years. If we do elect to participate in this treaty, we had all better be ready for a totally different economy and the transfer of wealth from our economy to those countries that are exempt.
4. We may discover that decreasing our consumption of petroleum products won't be a choice in the future. While it is true that there are ample reserves of petroleum, natural gas, and coal, it is also true that the cheaply accessed reserves are rapidly being depleted. We can get more oil by shale, Canadian tar sands, and deep water drilling; however it will be increasingly more expensive. In the future, it may well be that our concern may turn from how can we burn less to how can we find more at a price we can afford to pay.
5. I predict that learning to cope with climate change will replace trying to figure out how to stop it. In my opinion, regardless of the treaties we sign, rants from environmentalists, and efforts to manage these climate changes, we won't be able to stop the current trends. Learning to cope may well be the only viable strategy.
The next generation will face multiple challenges from the aging of the population to the huge obligations of the federal government. Undoubtedly, we will have to manage our finances, protect our environment, and find ways to manage global conflicts. We may well have to choose our battles more wisely and select those which we have higher probabilities of winning and learn to cope with those where the probabilities of success are lower.
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