MUSINGS ON A RAINY AFTERNOON

Famous People I’ve Met. Perhaps the most famous person I have met is Dan Quayle, former vice president under George Bush. At least he is probably the one that most of you would recognize. There was another that I would suspect that 99% of you have never heard of. I met him when I was a freshman at Wheat Ridge High School. It seemed that we had a lot in common. He was a skinny, pimply-faced kid with a flat top and I was a homely kid with coke-bottle thick glasses and unruly hair. We were both on the freshman basketball team and neither of us got to do much more than suit up. The most common thread was that we both loved music. Both of us had cheap guitars but we could play relatively well. We were also horrible singers. The major difference was that I knew it and seldom did I allow anyone to hear my attempts. In contrast, he played and sang at assemblies and other school functions and, as his voice shifted back and forth between an uncomfortable tenor and a screechy soprano, the audience did their best to keep their fingers out of their ears. I guess what he lacked in musical talent, he made up with guts.

Fast-Forward Three Years. I gradually came to the conclusion that, although I loved music, I could never make a decent living as a performer. I graduated from college with a degree in Chemistry. He dropped out of college and started hitchhiking to Hollywood in search of a musical career. On the way, Don and Phil Everly (The Everly Brothers) drove past him and, because he was carrying a guitar, decided to give him a ride. He rode all the way with them and, when he got there they introduced him to their agent. You can imagine my surprise when I woke up one morning in the late 50’s there he was on the radio singing his new hit, “Our Summer Romance.” Gone was the screechy soprano and the tenor was amazingly smooth. I don’t know what happened to him out there but it appeared that someone had managed to teach him to sing. I heard he was on “American Bandstand” and several local disk jockeys predicted he would become a huge success. Despite all those predictions of success, it appeared that he just dropped out of sight. We both in our early 20’s and I was not to hear of him again until we were almost 50.

Fast Forward 25 Years. I had married my third wife and was struggling to get my financial service business started when I heard he was back in Denver to promote a film: Portrait of An American Rebel. He had been interviewed on a local radio station and almost provoked the host into a fist fight. It was at that time I learned that he had spent the past 25 years in South America, East Germany, and the Soviet Union. He was a superstar by almost any definition, having played to huge sold out crowds where ever he went, selling out huge auditoriums and soccer stadiums. He had also starred in several westerns in Italy. (Remember Spaghetti Westerns)? He also had recently married his third wife.

While he was in Denver, one of our high school classmates arranged for us to spend an evening with him. We all got together while he played his guitar and sang several songs. As you might expect, he exuded charisma. The dorky kid was replaced by a handsome, self confident man but there was an air of sadness about him that was evident in some of our more private conversations. One thing he said has stood out in my mind to this very day. “It is so hard for me to think about growing old in a country that is not my own.” Although he never quite brought himself to say it, it was obvious to me that he wanted to return. But it wasn’t that easy. Although he had been extremely popular in communist countries, that popularity did not carry the financial rewards that it does in this country. He didn’t have the wealth to survive without earning income and he probably didn’t have the talent to compete as an entertainer in the US. He also had a reputation as an Anti-American Marxist. That was the last time I saw him. His name was Dean Reed.

Fast Forward Six Months. They found his body in a lake not far from his East Berlin home. An autopsy showed he had an undigested sleeping pill in his stomach. His death was ruled an accident but many East Germans theorized that it was suicide or the CIA. Americans thought it was probably the KGB. It remains a mystery. One way or another he died just past the peak of his popularity. As the popularity of Marxism declined in the Eastern Bloc countries, so did Dean’s popularity. To many Americans he was a traitor but to me he was just a dumb kid who would do anything for a musical career.

Fast Forward 24 years. The life and death of Dean Reed can teach us something. 1. You can accomplish a lot more than most people think you can. None of us who knew Dean in high school thought he had a chance of becoming an international superstar but we were obviously unaware of his tremendous drive that outweighed his lack of talent. 2. There are those along the way who can help you. Someone taught Dean to control his screechy voice, introduced him to the right people and gave him the opportunity he needed. 3. Be careful of those you bargain with to attain success. A famous American blues man, Robert Johnson was said to have sold his soul to the devil in exchange for the ability to play the blues. He became quite popular and recorded songs that are still played 70 years after he died from poisoning at age 26. It has been written that he crawled on all fours and barked like a dog before he died. Dean Reed made a deal with those who were enemies of his country. At the end he was not popular behind the iron curtain, nor welcome in the country he left.

You Have To See What I've been Writing About. This post would not be complete with out a link to his performance. If nothing else it might bring back memories. Most of his popular songs are recorded in German, Russian or Spanish. The following is in English. My lack of computer savvy keeps me from making a link but you can copy this one and paste it in your browser to see my old friend on stage. In addition to the performance I have included a second that is part of a documentary done on his life.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVgkePXZSk0&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0WF-sLPzBw&feature=related

OUR ENERGY FUTURE

Alternative Energy Sources.........Not As Easy As It Looks. What is the fastest growing energy source for utilities? Despite all the talk about "clean" energy sources, the fastest growing source is coal. Granted, this is not the case in the U. S. but expansion in China and India is almost exclusively based on coal. We have yet to come close to exploiting all the coal available in this country and it doesn't look like we will considering it's reputation as a pollutant. Perhaps it's better that way, particularly in view of the "discovery" of huge natural gas deposits. Not only is natural gas cleaner than coal it is also more efficient; therefore, less carbon dioxide is produced per unit of energy delivered.


Oil Price Stability. There is little reason to believe that petroleum prices will rise this year, provided we don't pass some sort of carbon tax. The supply/demand balance has changed drastically over the last 18 months. Countries like Russia and Venezuela are already feeling the pinch from lower oil prices and may continue to make up for these low prices by producing more. The predominant opinion is that oil prices will be in the $70-80 range for most of this year. This is probably the optimum range for economic recovery. High enough to encourage conservation and exploration but not so high as to put a damper on expansion.


Working on Nuclear. Although it is likely to take some time before we see a lot of nuclear power in this country, the fact that no carbon emissions are produced makes it much more attractive to environmentalists. There appears to be some attractive new technology that lowers the risk of overheating in nuclear reactors and uses the radioactive material more efficiently. It involves encapsulating the nuclear fuel with beryllium oxide, thus more efficiently dissipating the heat.

Renewable Energy. Those of you who follow my writing will recall that I am not nearly so bullish on renewable energy sources as some who believe it is just a matter of pushing the right buttons. It's not that I wouldn't like to see some progress in this area, its just that I don't believe the technology is anywhere near available to make a dent in our energy needs. Much of the research currently being done is of dubious value. For example,a project at Ohio University to produce hydrogen, a carbon free energy source, they have discovered that the urine from one cow can be electrolyzed to produce enough hydrogen to provide hot water for 19 houses. I hope that doesn't bring the same mental picture to your mind as it does mine. In a recent article in The Economist, they predict that renewable sources will provide 10% of world energy needs by 2030. This is only a bit higher than the 7% which existed in 2006. Hardly enough to allow the world to get off fossil fuels any time soon.

Almost Mobile Again. I walked a couple miles today which leads me to believe I am able to make a trip to Colorado next week. If you need an appointment call Susan at 720-449-0200. She will know how to find me so we can schedule something.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT

It's Been a Long Improvement Process. A month ago I could barely walk upright. Although I am not totally pain free, It's great to be more mobile at this point. My memory may be less than stellar but I can hardly remember being laid up for so long at any other period of my life. I am just waiting to reach a level where I can maneuver a suitcase through the airport and fly to Denver.

The Market Continues to Decline. In my last post I questioned whether or not we have reached the point where the market corrects from the raging bull market we had last year. I anticipated it for several months while the market continued to go stronger. If nothing else, I expected a seasonal correction when the market tends to drop during September and October. While history shows that is most often correct, it is definitely not that simple. I had other reasons to expect a correction to include high unemployment, low consumer spending levels, and high foreclosure rates. At this point, the bottom line is that the market has dropped around 5% from its high and my guess is that it will go lower.

You Can't Separate Politics From The Economy. A lot of folks think I want to blame the Democrats for our difficulty. I have been highly critical of the administration and their economic policies; however, I am equally critical of the other party when they attempt to expand the government role in managing our economy. It isn't that I think the government deliberately de-rails the economy. The problem is that governments over-estimate their ability to be a positive influence. For example, consider their attempts to re-structure mortgage debt to allow more homeowners to avoid foreclosure. So far, they have restructured just over 1000 loans in the state of Colorado. If that is the best they can do that would be better off to quit trying and use the money elsewhere. Ask Realtors, mortgage brokers, and appraisers about how well they are regulating those industries. They have done far more harm than good with their attempts. Each party has their own constituency that they want to help. The Republicans are accused of favoring corporations and the democrats are accused of favoring unions. There is some truth in both these accusations. A more level playing field would probably help us all.

Hopefully, I Will See My Colorado Clients Soon. In the meantime, I will do my best to keep an eye on our investments.