A Full Blown Energy Crisis? It seems like oil prices have only one way to go. Up! This spring has been brutal on oil prices. We worried about $100 a barrel oil and $3.00 gasoline but we passed those barriers like they weren't even there. All this time, we've had a totally unexpected rally in the stock market. I can only say that I didn't expect it and I doubt that these levels can hold. My position is that the market hasn't figured out the difficulties that our economy will face because of these price levels. Although I am leaving day-after-tomorrow to drive to Colorado, I doubt there are very many families who plan to travel this spring or summer with fuel prices at these levels. Hotels, restaurants, and tourist related business haven't even begun to feel these effects yet. Truck drivers can strike all they want to but the only way they can cope is to raise their own prices. Some airlines will have to raise their prices to compensate and have already begun to do so via imposing a fee for all checked baggage. Retail stores and restaurants have been closing stores due to reduced traffic. This is bound to have an effect on the stock market. Don't expect the current prices to hold. Stay invested in dividend stocks but sell others, perhaps even energy stocks, into rallies. Raise cash for opportunities which will arise later.
Has The Housing Market Turned Around? Recent data show that it hasn't with nationwide prices dropping more than 3% during the past 12 months. These data also show how strongly regional factors affect the marketplace. In Tibodaux, Louisiana home prices increased 11%, the highest in the nation. You will probably be shocked to find out that number two was Grand Junction, Colorado with an increase in excess of 9%. No major city in Colorado reported a decrease. Is it time to venture into residential real estate investments? Some think it is; however, don't expect price increases to accelerate rapidly. It could be years before we see strong appreciation again. Still, those who want to diversify will probably find the returns from residential real estate investments will exceed those available from the stock and bond markets, particularly with the potential for renewed inflation.
Why Is Colorado Housing Doing Better Than The Rest of The Country? Part of the answer is the energy business. Colorado has always been sort of a hub for oil and natural gas exploration and production. I get numerous e-mails about the potential of "The Bakken Fields which are located in the Williston Basin of Montana and the Dakotas. The area is reported to contain 500 billion barrels of light sweet crude which has only become available due to improved drilling technology. Of course, much of this is probably hype but drilling activity has picked up considerably. Certainly, there are other areas in the Rocky Mountains and Denver will probably regain some of its reputation as an energy hub. These are high paying jobs and will probably insulate us from some of the ill effects of the slow down in other sectors.
Headed To Colorado For a Month. As I said before, I am driving towards Denver day after tomorrow. I will be available for client meetings so any of you who need to schedule a meeting can call our office and leave your contact information. Of course, you can also send an e-mail; however, I am not as tied to the computer while on the road as I am at other times. You can also leave some contact information in the event that I run out of money and can't afford the gas to get all the way home. Your help would be appreciated.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Monday, May 05, 2008
IN TROUBLE WITH YOUR MORTGAGE?
A Lot of People Over-Extended Themselves. I could lecture those who got themselves in trouble by taking out mortgages they really couldn't afford. Certainly there is plenty of blame to go around. If you are one of those in a position to lose your home because of a bad mortgage decision, what you really need is a strategy to deal with the problem today not a critique of what you did in the past. Here are some strategies that may help some of you.
1. Take Responsibility. There is a lot of talk about predatory lenders but, in most cases the bulk of the responsibility lies with the borrower. Borrowers who blame others for their problem tend to expect others to solve them. In some cases this may work but, in most cases, you will have to take charge of your own situation.
2. Look For Someone To Negotiate With. Your lender will not benefit by taking your home but there is no benefit in letting you live there free either. Your problem is one of finding someone within the lender's organization who is empowered to negotiate on the lenders' behalf. Often the lender that you make your payments to has sold your loan and is only a servicing agent with little motivation to negotiate a solution. Patience and persistence will be necessary in order to find someone to discuss the matter with.
3. Find an Advocate. There are real estate agents who specialize in liquidating properties for lenders. These often have contacts within the lenders' organization. If you have decided to sell your property to get out from under a bad situation keep interviewing agents until you find one who knows his or her way around the system. One potential strategy is to negotiate a short sale, that is one where the lender accepts less than the full mortgage balance in order to facilitate the sale of the property.
4. Beware of Simple Solutions. Once news of a potential foreclosure gets out, you are likely to be inundated by those who claim to have a solution to your problem. Many of these are attempting to buy your property at a below-market price. While it may be in your best interest to leave a considerable amount of money on the table in order to break free of a bad situation, you need to do all you can to preserve as much of your equity as possible.
5. Know Your Property Value. You can use the internet to get a handle on the value of your property. Public records are now readily available in most areas and sites like Zillow.com can help you find out what similar properties in your area are going for. If your home is worth considerably more than the mortgage amount, you should be able to find a solution to your situation.
6. Start Early. Many of those I try to help come to me after it is to late to solve the problem. If you have two or three weeks to work something out, your options will limited to those strategies that can be executed in a relatively short period of time. Start early, be persistent and patient and your odds of success will be greatly improved.
Its been a Busy Two Weeks Since My Last Post. I have been to Denver and back to Texas since my last post. Much of my effort has been directed towards closing out a long-term real estate investment and putting the finishing touches in settling a family estate. I'm sorry that my communication with many of you has been limited. I hope to get back to Denver at the end of the month, at which time I will be able to devote more interest to my clients. In the meantime, I would like to assure all of you that I remain in tune with the real estate and financial markets. The recent rebound in the stock market has been a surprise. We aren't totally convinced that these improvements will last. High food and energy prices and the credit crunch are still a problem and may mean further trouble for the markets down the road.
1. Take Responsibility. There is a lot of talk about predatory lenders but, in most cases the bulk of the responsibility lies with the borrower. Borrowers who blame others for their problem tend to expect others to solve them. In some cases this may work but, in most cases, you will have to take charge of your own situation.
2. Look For Someone To Negotiate With. Your lender will not benefit by taking your home but there is no benefit in letting you live there free either. Your problem is one of finding someone within the lender's organization who is empowered to negotiate on the lenders' behalf. Often the lender that you make your payments to has sold your loan and is only a servicing agent with little motivation to negotiate a solution. Patience and persistence will be necessary in order to find someone to discuss the matter with.
3. Find an Advocate. There are real estate agents who specialize in liquidating properties for lenders. These often have contacts within the lenders' organization. If you have decided to sell your property to get out from under a bad situation keep interviewing agents until you find one who knows his or her way around the system. One potential strategy is to negotiate a short sale, that is one where the lender accepts less than the full mortgage balance in order to facilitate the sale of the property.
4. Beware of Simple Solutions. Once news of a potential foreclosure gets out, you are likely to be inundated by those who claim to have a solution to your problem. Many of these are attempting to buy your property at a below-market price. While it may be in your best interest to leave a considerable amount of money on the table in order to break free of a bad situation, you need to do all you can to preserve as much of your equity as possible.
5. Know Your Property Value. You can use the internet to get a handle on the value of your property. Public records are now readily available in most areas and sites like Zillow.com can help you find out what similar properties in your area are going for. If your home is worth considerably more than the mortgage amount, you should be able to find a solution to your situation.
6. Start Early. Many of those I try to help come to me after it is to late to solve the problem. If you have two or three weeks to work something out, your options will limited to those strategies that can be executed in a relatively short period of time. Start early, be persistent and patient and your odds of success will be greatly improved.
Its been a Busy Two Weeks Since My Last Post. I have been to Denver and back to Texas since my last post. Much of my effort has been directed towards closing out a long-term real estate investment and putting the finishing touches in settling a family estate. I'm sorry that my communication with many of you has been limited. I hope to get back to Denver at the end of the month, at which time I will be able to devote more interest to my clients. In the meantime, I would like to assure all of you that I remain in tune with the real estate and financial markets. The recent rebound in the stock market has been a surprise. We aren't totally convinced that these improvements will last. High food and energy prices and the credit crunch are still a problem and may mean further trouble for the markets down the road.
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